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Working Paper Series in Economics
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No. wp2023-4
(Download at EconPapers)
- Merike Kukk, Natalia Levenko and Nicolas Reigl
- Measuring the effects of borrower-based policies
on new housing loans in Estonia
The paper evaluates the outcomes of the borrower-based macroprudential policy
measures that were introduced in Estonia in 2015. The core of the analysis is the
response of the credit market in 2016–2021 to the upper limit on the debt serviceto-income ratio for new housing loans. The paper employs a novel approach based
on the distribution of loan-level data, which allows the analysis to be made using
only data from the post-treatment period. The average number of loans affected,
meaning those that were rejected or taken in a smaller amount, is estimated to be
on average around eleven per cent of the total number of new loans. The total stock
of housing loans is on average around 1.7 per cent smaller. The losses in the volume
of new loans due to the limit are fairly stable over the years despite the volume of
housing loans growing in recent years.
- JEL-Codes: G21, G51, E58, D39
- Keywords: borrower-based policy measures, debt service-to-income ratio, housing loans, density distributions, extensive and intensive margin
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No. wp2023-3
(Download at EconPapers)
- Karsten Staehr, Olegs Tkacevs and Katri Urke
- Fiscal performance under inflation and inflation surprises: evidence from fiscal reaction functions
for the Euro Area
This paper estimates fiscal reaction functions to examine the importance
of inflation and inflation surprises for fiscal outcomes in the euro area
countries, covering the first 12 countries to join the euro area. The effect of
HICP inflation on the primary fiscal balance in per cent of GDP is positive,
and statistically and economically significant. The positive effect stems
from both the revenue side, particularly direct taxes and indirect taxes, and
the expenditure side, particularly primary current expenditures. The effects
of HICP inflation on the primary balance and other fiscal outcomes appear
in large part to stem from inflation surprises, which are errors in the
inflation forecasts available for preparing budgets. The positive effect on the
primary fiscal balance does not exhibit noticeable non-linearities.
- JEL-Codes: H6, H62, H68, E31
- Keywords: public finances; fiscal outcome; inflation; inflation surprises
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No. wp2023-2
(Download at EconPapers)
- Lukasz Wiktor Olejnik
- Economic growth and military expenditure
in the countries on NATOʼs Eastern flank in 1999–2021
This paper studies how military expenditure impacted economic growth in nine
Central and Eastern European countries in 1999–2021 using a newly created dataset
of disaggregated military expenditures. The results of estimating an ARDL growth
model with military expenditure confirm that various kinds of military expenditure
had a negative and statistically significant influence on economic growth in the
longer run, and show that personnel expenditures and labour market adjustments
were the most important channel of influence. Equipment purchases and army
maintenance also have a negative influence on GDP growth, but that influence is
smaller. Fiscal multipliers of military expenditure were estimated using the Local
Projections method to measure the short-run effects, and values below unity were
obtained. The short-run fiscal multipliers of military expenditure are 0.2–0.5 lower
than the fiscal multipliers of non-military government consumption
- JEL-Codes: H56, O11
- Keywords: military expenditures; military expenditures and economic growth; fiscal multiplier; fiscal adjustments
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No. wp2023-1
- Karsten Staehr
- Economic Growth, Current Account Dynamics and
Growth Regimes in the Baltic States
This paper considers the growth performance of the Baltic
states from the mid-1990s to 2021. Economic growth was fast
before the global financial crisis, but slowed markedly after the
crisis. Panel data estimations using seemingly unrelated
regressions suggest that the dynamics of the current account
balance are important for short and medium-term growth in the
Baltic states, but that there is a break signifying a change of
growth regime around the time of the global financial crisis.
Before the crisis, rapid growth was supported by domestic
demand that was made possible by large current account deficits.
After the crisis, economic growth was supported by external
demand reflected in an improvement of the current account. The
shift in the economic growth regime after the global financial
crisis has brought lower but also more sustainable growth.
- JEL-Codes: F32, F34, O40
- Keywords: economic growth, economic convergence, current account balance, global financial crisis
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